Drought Drives Surge in Subsidence Claims

Subsidence claims are expected to reach as much as £250 million between August and November after drought conditions caused structural damage to thousands of homes, an industry expert has warned.

Ground engineering specialist Geobear said this summer's prolonged heatwaves have triggered a sharp rise in insurance claims, as exceptionally dry conditions cause movement in the ground beneath properties.

The estimated £200 million to £250 million in claims for the four-month period alone would come close to the £307 million recorded across the whole of 2025, according to figures from the Association of British Insurers (ABI).

Many homes across the UK are built on clay-rich soil, which is particularly susceptible to changes in moisture levels. During prolonged dry spells, clay contracts, while wet conditions cause it to expand, potentially leading to movement beneath a property's foundations.

Otso Lahtinen, chief executive of Geobear, which has worked on projects including Heathrow Terminal 3, said 2026 had been the most severe soil-drying season the company had recorded.

"We estimate the August to November period alone could generate £200 million to £250 million in insured losses," he said. "A full-year 2026 total matching or exceeding 2025's record £307 million would not be surprising."

Homeowners are being urged to watch for potential signs of subsidence, including diagonal cracks that are wider at the top than the bottom, particularly around doors and windows.

While London has accounted for the majority of claims so far, Mr Lahtinen said the impact was beginning to spread further across the country.

"Northern parts of the UK are starting to see claims for the first time," he said.

"The heat has been so prolonged this summer, with so little moisture, and this is now the second consecutive year we have seen these conditions.

"It is spreading into areas where the soil would not typically be affected."

Geobear researchers said that, despite recent rainfall, soil moisture levels are unlikely to recover fully until late September, leaving more properties potentially vulnerable to ground movement in the coming months.

Whitestone Solicitors